Software & Internet
Software & Internet
Advertising platforms, enterprise software, megacap internet
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PUBLIC MARKET COVERAGE
Adobe Inc. (ADBE): The Multiple Priced a Terminal Franchise Before the Earnings Did: a GAAP Multiple in the Low Teens, a $480 Million Freemium Bet, and a New Chief Executive Named One Week Before the Print
Adobe Inc. (ADBE): The Multiple Priced a Terminal Franchise Before the Earnings Did: a GAAP Multiple in the Low Teens, a $480 Million Freemium Bet, and a New Chief Executive Named One Week Before the Print
Sector: Software, Creative and Marketing Applications
Date: September 10, 2026
Verdict: WATCH · Fair Value $284 · Entry below $227
Abstract: Coverage is initiated at WATCH and updated for the third-quarter print: revenue of $6.76 billion (+13%), non-GAAP EPS of $6.13, ending ARR of $27.50 billion against the $27.47 billion FactSet mark, and raised fiscal 2026 targets, with the shares 2.1% lower after hours on a fourth-quarter midpoint $25 million under consensus. On earnings that charge equity pay the close of $248.82 is 13.4x fiscal 2026 and the burdened free cash flow yield is 8.4%; capitalised at a 9.28% cost of equity, the price implies perpetual growth of +0.9% while the guide delivers double digits. Fair value blends a 16x regime lens on fiscal 2027 clean GAAP earnings, worth $333, with a no-growth annuity lens worth $222, weighted by the contracted share of revenue. The organic recurring-revenue guide was cut by about $480 million to fund a freemium funnel whose payback management will not size, and three of the four seats that set strategy changed inside six months. Conditional GO on a close inside the Value band with the ARR target intact; AVOID on two consecutive quarters of organic ARR growth below 6%.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): The Business Keeps Winning and the Price Has Pre-Collected the Prize: at 46% Above Fair Value, the Growth Has to Refuse to Decay for Two More Years
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): The Business Keeps Winning and the Price Has Pre-Collected the Prize: at 46% Above Fair Value, the Growth Has to Refuse to Decay for Two More Years
Sector: Information Technology, Software
Date: August 24, 2026
Verdict: AVOID · Fair Value $123 · No entry at current levels
Abstract: The operating record is not in dispute: second-quarter revenue of $1.935bn grew 93%, US commercial grew 149%, adjusted free cash flow margin reached 63%, net dollar retention was 157% and guidance was raised. The rating rests entirely on what the price requires. Fair value blends a rate-shocked 27x and a franchise 38x on 2028 estimated free cash flow per share of $3.50 plus $4.93 of net cash. The $179.91 close sits in the Extended band at 1.46 times fair value, and reverse engineering it requires 77% revenue growth compounded to 2028 at the blend multiple, against consensus 2027 growth of 52%.
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): The Miss Was Written in the Legal Line: A 30% Drawdown That Prices the Claim, Not the Verdicts
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): The Miss Was Written in the Legal Line: A 30% Drawdown That Prices the Claim, Not the Verdicts
Sector: Communication Services, Internet
Date: August 23, 2026
Verdict: CONDITIONAL GO · Fair Value $616 · Entry below $492.80
Abstract: Fair value moves from $582 to $616 on anchor re-derivation alone, with the earnings path, the weights and the rating unchanged. The prior regime anchor took the low quartile of the multiple the market had paid over the preceding year, which makes fair value a function of price; it is replaced by 16x drawn from the peer regime band and the company's own 2022 to 2023 capex fear episode. The franchise anchor of 21x is the minimum of peer through-cycle averages, the company's full-cycle median, and growth parity at a vendor PEG of 0.81. The self-check ratio prints 1.12, outside the 0.9 to 1.1 anchoring zone, against the prior print's 1.06 which sat inside it.
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