Materials

Sector: Basic Materials, Gold Mining

Date: September 18, 2026

Verdict: WATCH · Fair Value $26.50 · Entry below $21.20

Abstract: The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023 and the Bank of Japan followed two days later; gold gave back about 5% from its August high and the equity fell 13.6% from the August 24 close, 2.7 times as far as the metal. Fair value, both lenses, the multiple and the entry line are unchanged: the through-cycle multiple is derived over the full 2017Q4 to 2025Q4 window and cannot follow the tape, and the fair-value-to-price ratio has moved through 0.81, 0.95 and 0.93 in four weeks with the anchor fixed. Only the scenario probabilities moved, re-anchored to the delivered hike, which takes the probability-weighted value to $28.02 and the first sell baseline to $29.43. The re-rating trigger, a weekly gold close above $4,500 together with a Federal Reserve signal that the cycle is finished, has resolved against the deck. At $28.48 the shares sit in the Full band: no new buying, holders hold, first reduction at $29.43.

Sector: Basic Materials, Gold Mining

Date: August 24, 2026

Verdict: WATCH · Fair Value $26.50 · Entry below $21.20 · Trim baselines $31.04 / $32.89 / $34.01

Abstract: Fair value blends two views of the metal and the equity now trades above both, 19% above the $32.76 close of August 21. The through-cycle multiple is derived over the full 2017Q4 to 2025Q4 cycle window rather than the trailing period, which removes the stock's own recent price history from the anchor. Band action at this price is trim into strength with no new buying, and the payoff baselines bind before the band trim line. Upgrade requires two conditions together: gold sustaining above $4,500 weekly, and a credible signal that the tightening cycle has ended.

Sector: Basic Materials, Gold Mining

Date: August 3, 2026

Verdict: CONDITIONAL GO · Fair Value $26.50 · Entry below $21.00, tranches $21 to $25

Abstract: Kinross closed at $23.10 on July 31, down 39% from its January peak while consensus 2026 earnings per share were cut only 13%. The second quarter reported July 29 showed the opposite of deterioration: adjusted earnings per share of $0.71 against a $0.66 consensus, margin per ounce up 42% to $3,131, and a swing to $1.9bn of net cash. Fair value of $26.50 blends a $3,400 cycle-normalisation view worth $18.72 at 35% with a $4,200 structural-demand view worth $30.61 at 65%, weighted by the composition of second-quarter margin. Inverting that model, the price embeds roughly $3,750 gold at eleven times earnings, below spot and below every major bank forecast. Five houses cut targets in July and none cut a rating, which places the de-rating in the metal rather than the company.

Sector: Materials, Precious Metals

Date: March 31, 2026

Verdict: Top picks Evolution Mining (EVN.AX) · Alamos Gold (AGI) · Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) · DCF upside +83% / +77% / +134%

Abstract: Thirty-three names are screened across senior, mid-tier, junior and royalty groups on eight forward-looking criteria covering valuation, free cash flow yield, all-in sustaining cost, production growth, balance sheet, capital return and geographic risk. Each finalist carries a distinct thesis. Evolution's copper byproduct credit structurally lowers gold all-in sustaining cost to $1,190 per ounce against a sector median of $1,755. Alamos delivers 14% production growth compounded with a declining cost base, fully internally funded. Wheaton trades at a discount to Franco-Nevada with three times the growth rate, backed by Tier-1 operators on 59% of gold-equivalent production. The Tier-1 senior producers all rank in the bottom half.