Semiconductors

Sector: Semiconductors, AI Compute Platforms

Date: September 18, 2026

Verdict: CONDITIONAL GO · Fair Value $315 · Entry below $252

Abstract: Three weeks after a July quarter that beat guidance by 5.7% and lifted the largest house's FY27 estimate by about 6%, the shares sit 4.6% above the pre-print close, 30% below fair value in the Value band. The earnings revision and the 29 basis point rise in the ten-year cancel almost exactly at a constant equity risk premium; what remains is relief that the committee moved without surprising. The Form 10-Q now puts numbers where there were sentences: five customers hold 70% of $63.1 billion of receivables, the pre-registered threshold reached but not crossed, and the balance sheet stands behind demand in five forms totalling $327 billion at disclosed maximums. The quarter of FY28 demand that depends on that support is credited at 67%, a factor derived three ways from the disclosed structure. Both multiples come from one dated compilation and neither from the company's own price history; a print above 70% concentration in November cuts fair value toward $258.

Sector: Semiconductors, Memory

Date: September 9, 2026

Verdict: CONDITIONAL GO · Fair Value KRW 2,750,000 · Accumulate below KRW 2,145,000

Abstract: Fair value rises 1.9% from KRW 2,700,000 on a single input, the FnGuide 2027 operating-profit consensus moving from KRW 386 trillion to KRW 397 trillion; the floor, the weights and both multiples are unchanged and the price is not an input. The September 8 close of KRW 1,793,000 sits 53% below fair value in the Value band and now capitalises earnings 6% above the through-cycle floor, against 13% below it in August. Of the eight sessions since the prior note with moves of 4% or more, none carried a negative company disclosure and the two largest declines came on long-end sell-offs, so a discount-rate regime signal is added to the transition board. A KRW 40 trillion buyback-and-cancel program is running 67% ahead of an even pace at a reference price 60% of fair value, and NVIDIA's disclosure gives the contracted layer a dated horizon of roughly three fiscal years. The framework breaks only on two consecutive negative months of blended DRAM contract pricing.

Sector: Semiconductors, Memory

Date: September 9, 2026

Verdict: AVOID · Fair Value $801 · Entry below $640.80

Abstract: An AVOID on price, not on the business. The September 8 close of $1,000.26 sits 25% above fair value in the Premium band after a 39% fall and a 35% rebound during which the fiscal 2027 consensus rose 51%, a de-rating without a single downgrade. Sixteen take-or-pay agreements cover about 23% of volume at a floor price roughly half the calendar-Q2 ceiling; at a fixed cost per bit that floor still earns a 71% gross margin, above any prior-cycle peak, but it protects the contracted layer's margin, not the revenue line. The valuation blends a through-cycle floor of $390 at 60% with a consensus ceiling of $1,417 at 40%, the weight being management's own figure for the share of revenue that will carry fixed or ceiling pricing. A 3-million-path simulation over disclosed ranges places the mark at the 45th percentile and the close at the 77th; the same construction prices SK hynix at parity to its floor.

Sector: Semiconductors, AI Compute Platforms

Date: August 29, 2026

Verdict: CONDITIONAL GO · Fair Value $315 · Entry below $252

Abstract: July-quarter revenue of $96.2bn came in 5.7% above guidance, the October quarter is guided to $108bn, and the company framed the following year at about 70% growth, constrained by supply rather than demand. At the peer multiple of 23.6x, the $217.55 close implies FY28 earnings of $9.22, which is 1.00x our FY27 estimate: the price pays for no growth beyond this fiscal year. Two conditions sit against it. Gross margin is now a function of the memory bill, guided down 3.5 points to a 71 to 72% trough with supply commitments rising from $119bn to $279bn, and receivables grew three times faster than revenue while credit support of $105bn for one customer campus sits beside a $500bn financing platform.

Sector: Semiconductors, Equipment

Date: August 24, 2026

Verdict: WATCH · Fair Value $145 · Entry below $116.00

Abstract: The stock has fallen 40% from its July high with no accompanying reduction in estimates. Process control share near 58% is six times the second player, gross margin runs at 62.4%, backlog stands at $12.57bn after growing 60%, and the service line has compounded for fifty consecutive quarters. The thesis is that two clocks run at different speeds: the order clock is slow and favourable, the multiple clock is fast and unfavourable, and the second decides the entry price. Band action at $183.99 is trim into strength for holders and no new buying.

Sector: Semiconductors, Memory

Date: August 6, 2026

Verdict: CONDITIONAL GO · Fair Value KRW 2,700,000

Abstract: SK hynix listed 177.9 million American Depositary Shares on Nasdaq on July 10, raising $26.5 billion in the largest US listing by a non-US issuer on record. The security closed its first session about 15.7% above the won value of the Seoul line. The second session settled the more important question. On July 13 the KOSPI fell 8.95% into a circuit breaker and the underlying fell 15.4%, while the ADS fell only 9.3%: the premium did not compress, it widened to 23.7%. That is the one-way conversion design working as specified, because a float that cannot grow does not absorb local selling. Two conclusions follow and they point in opposite directions. The wrapper is now expensive, already above the closest precedent's recent average, and if the premium normalizes to the 7.5% central case with the underlying unchanged the ADS is worth about $132. The underlying is now cheap, 32% below the KRW 2,700,000 fair value this report derives and trading at 5.1x consensus 2026 operating profit. The second effect is larger. Initiating at BUY, fair value ~$194.

Sector: Semiconductors, Memory

Date: July 14, 2026

Verdict: BUY · Fair Value $194 per ADS · Band $180 to $207

Abstract: SK hynix listed 177.9 million American Depositary Shares on Nasdaq on July 10, raising $26.5 billion in the largest US listing by a non-US issuer on record. The security closed its first session about 15.7% above the won value of the Seoul line. The second session settled the more important question. On July 13 the KOSPI fell 8.95% into a circuit breaker and the underlying fell 15.4%, while the ADS fell only 9.3%: the premium did not compress, it widened to 23.7%. That is the one-way conversion design working as specified, because a float that cannot grow does not absorb local selling. Two conclusions follow and they point in opposite directions. The wrapper is now expensive, already above the closest precedent's recent average, and if the premium normalizes to the 7.5% central case with the underlying unchanged the ADS is worth about $132. The underlying is now cheap, 32% below the KRW 2,700,000 fair value this report derives and trading at 5.1x consensus 2026 operating profit. The second effect is larger. Initiating at BUY, fair value ~$194.

Sector: Semiconductors, Memory

Date: June 28, 2026

Verdict: AVOID · Fair Value $833 · No new buying above ~$900

Abstract: Micron closed near $1,129 on June 27, 2026, after a record fiscal-Q3 print on June 24 carried it above $1 trillion in market value for the first time. The beat is real and the floor is higher, but the price already discounts the structural break. Micron beat on every line, with revenue of $41.5B against a ~$35.6B consensus, adjusted EPS of $25.11, and a record 84.9 percent gross margin. It also expanded its take-or-pay book to sixteen non-cancelable agreements carrying a ~$100B contracted-revenue floor at margins above any prior cycle peak, the same disclosure that validates the broader structural case. We rebuilt the valuation from the ground up, credited the contracted floor in full, and raised fair value to ~$833 from a prior anchor near $600, about 26 percent below the price. The rating stays AVOID: accumulate on weakness, not into strength. The gap to the Street's $1,540 to $1,625 targets reflects one choice, capitalizing near-peak earnings as permanent versus valuing normalized through-cycle earnings, with the spot-price path for the unprotected three-quarters of revenue the variable that resolves the call.

Sector: Semiconductors, Memory

Date: June 25, 2026

Verdict: NEUTRAL · Fair Value KRW 2,700,000 · No new buying above KRW 2,800,000

Abstract: SK Hynix traded near KRW 2,820,000 intraday on June 25, 2026, rebounding from a June 23 circuit-breaker decline after Micron's fiscal-Q3 print. The central claim: a peer has put a number on the durable layer. Micron beat on every line and disclosed sixteen take-or-pay agreements with a ~$100B contracted-revenue floor at margins above any prior-cycle peak, third-party validation of the structural case. We raise the through-cycle floor to KRW 1,700,000 and the structural weight to 50 percent, lifting fair value to ~KRW 2,700,000 from ~KRW 2,500,000, about 4 percent below the price. The rating stays NEUTRAL: accumulate on weakness, not into strength, with a ~$29B July ADR the near-term overhang.

Sector: Semiconductors, AI Compute

Date: June 13, 2026

Verdict: OVERWEIGHT · Fair Value $275 · No new buying above $260

Abstract: NVIDIA closed at $205.19 on June 12, 2026, after a week in which the share price fell as much as 10.1 percent on an AI funding scare while the demand data accelerated. The report's central claim: the burden and the benefit sit at different addresses. Oracle's $40B FY2027 funding plan dilutes Oracle shareholders and funds NVIDIA's purchase orders, and on June 11 the market traded exactly this way, marking Oracle down 11.9 percent while semiconductors rallied nearly 8 percent on the same dataset. The update examines four questions: cash conversion, pricing power, capital return, and demand concentration. Free cash flow runs from $96.7B toward an estimated $186.5B in FY2027, a forward yield near 3.7 percent. Rack prices rose generationally from roughly $3.2M to $6 to 7M while gross margin held at 75 percent. Blending a through-cycle case near $185 with a structural case near $345 yields fair value near $275, about 34 percent above the close and below the $298 to $306 consensus, which applies no earnings-quality haircut. The decisive signal is the first negative quarter in the unrealized investment gains line, possible as soon as August 27; until then the discipline is accumulation below $260.

Sector: Semiconductors, Memory

Date: June 7, 2026

Verdict: NEUTRAL · Fair Value KRW 1,950,000

Abstract: SK Hynix entered June with record first-quarter results (revenue KRW 52.6T, +198% Y/Y; operating profit KRW 37.6T at a 72% margin) and a share price that had outrun its own estimate revisions. The test arrived early: Broadcom guided third-quarter AI revenue near $16B against a $17.2B consensus and buy-side expectations near $18.5B, and a +172,000 US payrolls print repriced rate risk, sending the shares down a combined 12.3% over June 4 to 5 to KRW 2,070,000 on no company-specific news. The close now sits at the 38-analyst average target (KRW 2,076,603) and within 1% of our probability-weighted scenario value (~KRW 2,056,000). Fair value is unchanged at ~KRW 1,950,000, blending a through-cycle and a structural-growth lens at the estimated 70/30 earnings mix; the implied downside is about 6%, and the market-implied structural weight fell from above 50% to roughly 37% in two sessions. The cycle triggers themselves did not move: the hyperscaler capex consensus remains +81%, the HBM book is committed, supplier capex is the one warning firing, and the ADR window now opens into a broken tape. The rating is NEUTRAL: the price sits at the top of the Fair band, where the rule is hold or accumulate gradually, with the ADR pricing, the third-quarter price peak, and the June 16 to 17 FOMC as the near-term tests.

Sector: Semiconductors, AI Compute

Date: June 4, 2026

Verdict: OVERWEIGHT · Fair Value $275 · No new buying above $260

Abstract: NVIDIA at $214.50 (June 3, 2026 close) sits 9% below its May 14 record after a 5.7% Vera Rubin rally was given back within two sessions. Q1 FY27 revenue of $81.6B grew 85%, but the central data point is earnings quality: roughly $15.9B of GAAP profit, about 27%, was unrealized gains on stakes in NVIDIA's own customers, a portfolio that doubled to $73.6B in one quarter. Blending a through-cycle DCF of $185 with a structural path of $345 by the estimated earnings mix yields a fair value near $275, about 28% above the market and below the $297 consensus, which applies no earnings-quality haircut. The rally is earnings-led, not multiple-led: shares rose 59% in twelve months against estimate revisions near 75%, compressing the forward multiple from roughly 40x to near 30x. The decisive signal is a first negative quarter in the equity-gains line, which would lead any revenue deterioration; until then the discipline is accumulation below $260 with full size reserved for $150 to $180.

Sector: Semiconductors, Memory

Date: May 28, 2026

Verdict: AVOID · Fair Value $600 · No entry above $1,000

Abstract: Micron at $942.36 (May 28, 2026 intraday) has returned +892% in twelve months following Q2 FY26 revenue of $23.86B (+196% YoY) with gross margin guided to 81%. The central data point is earnings composition: conventional DRAM ASP rose roughly 110% YoY against 40% bit growth, making about two thirds of the profit stream cyclical, while HBM, the genuinely structural product, runs near 12% of revenue and is not disclosed separately. Blending a through-cycle DCF of $405 at two thirds weight with a structural path of $1,000 at one third yields a fair value near $600, 36% below the market, and the forward P/E of 8.5x sits above SK Hynix at 5.4x despite a smaller structural HBM share. Cycle-turn signals are already firing: NAND spot fell 30 to 40% in a month, contract price momentum is decelerating, and CXMT conventional supply is scaling, pointing to contract roll-over in 2H26 to 1H27. Upgrade triggers are confirmed HBM disclosure above 50% of revenue or a verified multi-year price lock; downgrade confirmation is two consecutive months of negative conventional contract pricing or inventory days above 130.

Sector: Semiconductors, Foundry, CPU

Date: May 8, 2026

Verdict: AVOID · No entry above $50

Abstract: Twelve-month rally of 525% ($19.98 to $124.92) prices Foundry execution that has not occurred. Q1 2026 external Foundry revenue of $174M annualizes to $696M, only 14-23% of the $3-5B annual run-rate management targets for 2027 breakeven. Forward P/E of 152x is the highest in large-cap semiconductors, with all 32 sell-side analysts publishing targets below market (median $65, highest $100). Sum-of-parts produces a Bear/Base/Bull range of $19/$28/$50, with probability-weighted target of $31 against $125 market. Three pre-committed thesis-break triggers: external Foundry revenue above $750M quarterly before year-end 2026, Apple deal disclosure confirming $2B+ 2027 contribution at margins comparable to TSMC, or NVIDIA reversal on its 18A decision.